The Miami Dolphins have to travel cross country without their starting quarterback, which means we could see a heavy workload for the run game.
My Dolphins vs. Seahawks predictions focus squarely on De’Von Achane and his ability to rack up yards out of the backfield.
Find out why in our NFL picks for September 22.
Dolphins vs Seahawks prediction
My best betDe’Von Achane Over 49.5 receiving yards (+333 at BetMGM)
My analysis
With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Miami Dolphins are in a league of their own when it comes to downfield threats. However, visiting Lumen Field on the heels of a quarterback change puts Mike McDaniel in a tough spot.
Can he trust Skylar Thompson to make those deep plays? My guess is that McDaniel leans into a more cautious approach, at least to start the game – and that means a busy afternoon for De’Von Achane.
Achane has caught all of his 14 targets this season, picking up 69 receiving yards in Week 1 and 76 receiving yards against Buffalo in Week 2. After Thompson entered that contest to replace a concussed Tua Tagovailoa, four of his eight completions went to Achane, and this is a bet on McDaniel finding creative ways to get the ball to the speedster without asking Thompson to do too much in the pocket.
We should see a steady diet of screens and check-downs, tapping into Achane’s huge yards-after-catch potential. The Seattle Seahawks tackling wasn’t sharp against New England last weekend as Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson ran for a combined 177 yards, so I see Achane busting a few big plays if he catches the ball in space.
The Dolphins have had 10 days to prepare their offensive tweaks, and with Raheem Mostert listed as doubtful, the backfield belongs to Achane. Look for him to flash his pass-catching skills again on Sunday.
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Dolphins vs Seahawks same-game parlay
De’Von Achane Over 49.5 receiving yardsSeahawks moneylineUnder 43.5
+950 at BetMGM
The Seahawks have found ways to win under Mike Macdonald, with Geno Smith looking increasingly comfortable in Ryan Grubb’s new offensive scheme and the defense making strides. On the other side, we’ve got a Miami offense that was already sputtering when Tua was on the field, and now there’s likely to be an adjustment period for Thompson.
The Dolphins have lost four of their past five contests dating back to last season, while Seattle is 11-7 SU in its last 18 home games. I’m counting on the hosts to grind out another victory here. This feels like a low-scoring scrap, and the Under on a line of 43.5 is worth a look. Though Miami is built for high-octane offense, that’s been in short supply this year, with the visitors managing just 30 total points through the first two weeks.
Considering the Seahawks only allow 128.5 passing yards per game so far, it would be no surprise to see the Dolphins try to drain the clock with hand-offs and short passes. On the other side of the ball, DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba combined for 22 catches in Week 2, but it was alarming to see Seattle run for just 46 yards on 19 carries and it’s unclear whether Kenneth Walker III will be back this week.
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Dolphins vs Seahawks odds
Dolphins vs Seahawks live odds
Dolphins vs Seahawks opening odds
- Spread: Miami +6.5 (-110) | Seattle -6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Miami +225 | Seattle -275
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 (-110) | Under 41.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Dolphins vs Seahawks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Seahawks are good value as 4.5-point favorites, and they’ve hit the 2H moneyline in six of their last seven contests at Lumen Field.
- The Dolphins have the rest advantage after playing on TNF in Week 2, but they haven’t covered the spread in any of their past five games.
- Though Miami has cashed in the 1H Over in 14 of its last 20 contests, it’s a different proposition with Thompson under center.
- The Dolphins have hit the 3Q Under in 11 of their past 18 games.
