Dropping 91 points through two games will turn some heads and shift the NFL odds. The New Orleans Saints’ insane 2-0 start has NOLA labeled as a short home favorite against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3.
My Eagles vs. Saints predictions and NFL picks check out New Orleans’ high-octane offense and explain why you need to take the Over on Chris Olave’s receiving yards.
Eagles vs Saints prediction
My best betChris Olave Over 60.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
With the New Orleans Saints blowing the Panthers and Cowboys away by half in each of the past two games, Klint Kubiak’s offense has taken the air out of the ball and gone ground and pound in the final 30 minutes — all the way to the finish line.
New Orleans is passing on just over 35% of its total snaps, meaning receiving numbers are going to be down compared to expectations. The Saints have put the ball in the air only 39 times, spreading those rare pass attempts around the receiving corps.
Star wide receiver Chris Olave has been targeted only eight times for six grabs but still has 92 total yards this season, thanks to a 39-yard strike against Dallas and 81 yards receiving on the day in Week 2.
His Week 3 receiving yards total is at 60.5 O/U against the Philadelphia Eagles, sitting between his Week 1 total of 64.5 and Week 2 number of 55.5.
No matter which side of the fence the spread sits on, oddsmakers are expecting a closer game with plenty of points. Philadelphia is by far the best offensive opposition New Orleans has faced in 2024, entering Week 3 ranked Top 10 in both EPA per play and Offensive DVOA at FTN.
The game script of a back-and-forth shootout lends itself to a significant uptick in passing plays from the Saints and more involvement from their WR1.
Player projections for Olave range from lows of 67.3 yards to a high of 83.3, but all sit north of the 61.5-yard total. My number comes out just over 70 yards receiving for the former Ohio State standout and there’s potential he’ll make good on those higher forecasts.
Olave faces a Philly defense going through growing pains in Vic Fangio’s new schemes, sitting 25th in EPA allowed per dropback. Fangio doesn’t bring much blitz, and Philadelphia’s pass rush has produced only three sacks with a pressure rate of 19% per dropback.
That will keep NOLA quarterback Derek Carr clean, who is a different man when not facing pressure. While his short sample of 2024 stats is off the charts, the veteran passer has shown significant splits when kept clean vs. facing pressure during his career.
What’s more, the Eagles mix coverage schemes but are anchored in zone on almost 70% of snaps through the first two weeks. Olave is one of the best receivers regardless of coverage but is currently rated No. 5 vs. zone at PFF.
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Eagles vs Saints same-game parlay
Chris Olave Over 60.5 receiving yardsJalen Hurts Over 42.5 rushing yardsJalen Hurts Touchdown
+500 at BetMGM
Olave’s projections sit as high as 83 yards, and with a tight game and high total, New Orleans will pass much more.
Hurts will have to do it all against NOLA, including picking up gains on the ground. Forecasts call for 50+ rushing yards from the Eagles QB.
We might as well toss the “Tush Push” in the SGP. The Eagles QB should have two TDs to his resume in 2024, if not for a botched snap in Week 1.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Eagles vs Saints odds
Eagles vs Saints live odds
Eagles vs Saints opening odds
- Spread: Philadelphia -2.5 (-115) | New Orleans +2.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -145 | New Orleans +120
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-115) | Under 47.5 (-105)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Eagles vs Saints spread and Over/Under analysis
- The look-ahead lines in the summer had the Eagles listed as three-point road favorites. However, the Saints’ sensational start and Philly’s flop against the Falcons in Week 2 has flipped this spread
- The official Week 2 opener hit the board at New Orleans -2.5, and that’s crept to a field goal spread at some books. We’ve seen buyback on the Eagles +3 at that point, and books could go back and forth off the key number to keep action balanced.
- The Over/Under total opened at 49.5 points and has remained steady at that point, with New Orleans’ offensive eruption winning over oddsmakers for what is currently the second-tallest total of Week 3.
